Thursday, January 1, 2009

Lessons from the Crisis - People behaviour cycles

Excerpt from a Jim Roger interview:


(Q): Earlier this year, when we talked in Singapore, you made the observation that the average American still doesn’t know anything’s wrong – that anything’s happening. Is that still the case?

Rogers:Yes.

(Q): What would you tell the “Average Joe” in no-nonsense terms?

Rogers:  I would say that for the last 200 years, America’s elected politicians and scoundrels have built up $5 trillion in debt.  In the last few weekends, some un-elected officials added another $5 trillion to America’s national debt.

Suddenly we’re on the hook for another $5 trillion. There have been attempts to explain this to the public, about what’s happening with the debt, and with the fact that America’s situation is deteriorating in the world. 

I don’t know why it doesn’t sink in.  People have other things on their minds, or don’t want to be bothered.  Too complicated, or whatever. 

I’m sure when the [British Empire] declined there were many people who rang the bell and said: “Guys, we’re making too many mistakes here in the U.K.”  And nobody listened until it was too late. 

When Spain was in decline, when Rome was in decline, I’m sure there were people who noticed that things were going wrong.


It seems like such cycles in civilisations are an inevitable result of human nature. When there are people who have to struggle, they build up their character, strength of convictions and ability to fight. And most importantly live a strenous life. They become role models for their children, and build up a society/organisation based on good principles, as they themselves are hard working. However their progenies get things ready and built for themselves. It is easy for humans to take for granted the good things, and not see the umpteen labour that goes behind keeping everything running. Love for labour and hardships is lost, self-centred individualism increases, and there comes in a desire to gain for themselves as much of the resources around for themselves, as possible. Community loyalties and fellowship is lost. And this affects organisations and civilisations the most.

And then come the 3rd generations who have never seen the human effort that went behind creating the agencies(society/org.) whose benefits they reap, it becomes even easier to take for granted, and even more difficult to recognise bad, destructive behaviour creeping in. Plus none of them is attached enough to really care much, since they've got used to living a life where they could take the organisation for granted and live a very self centred life. Then slowly this attitude starts destroying all those aspects of human life which require a high level of working together - civil structures, big businesses and moral fibre of the society.

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